WP5: Scenarios of change
Based on a catalogue of different lock-ins identified above and scenario outputs from WP4, the project will explore “unlocked” systems to enable us to consider the wider social, economic and environmental outcomes that may follow addressing any ‘lock-in’. Thus, stakeholder groups will be employed to assess the effects of the different scenarios, including land and farm management, value chains, lifestyles as well as landscape and ecological effects. We will use a scenario typology developed by Börjeson et al. (2006) that builds on Amara’s (1981) original categories probable, possible and preferable, as we believe these categories to reflect three basically different modes of thinking about the future. Thus, the predictive scenarios will correspond to Amara’s probable futures (What will happen?), explorative scenarios to possible futures (What can happen?), and normative scenarios to preferable futures (How can a specific target be reached?). While, it remains a methodological challenge to combine qualitative and quantitative data in scenarios (van Notten et al., 2003) in our case the scenarios will be strongly advised by the ABM. The scenarios will be presented to two key stakeholder workshops for evaluation and assessment in terms of wider impact of change (social, economic, environmental) and will contribute to the assessment of appropriate policy solutions (e.g. Soliva et al., 2008) in WP6. It should be noted that using scenarios to explore social transformation within such complex systems of producers, supporting businesses, retailers and consumers, is a new and challenging exercise.
WP Leader, CRR