WP2: Economic modelling of lock-in
In light of the need to maintain a profitable farming industry while reducing carbon usage this WP will involve a study of economic lock-in in the beef/dairy supply chain. Here NILF will contribute with an analysis using various data sources to aid in the understanding of the economic lock-in effects in the dairy/beef supply chain. The direct payment database (SLF) provides numbers for land use and animal husbandry on all Norwegian farms. This will be combined with the tenannual
data of the agricultural census (SSB), and used for the analysis of path-dependency of dairy/beef farms. Do those farms diversify over time? Do they change their crop mix or composition of animal husbandry? If not, why not? Background variables on key farm characteristics such as geographic location, farmer’s age, farm income and off-farm income of the
farm household, as well as relationships to neighbouring farms (important for ABMs) will be used to explain the observed farm development in an attempt to identify possible causes of pathdependency and economic lock-in. We will concentrate on the 2000-2013 period, which saw considerable restructuring of the dairy/beef supply chain in Norway caused by policy-induced incentives to merge small dairy farms to larger units.
WP Leader, NIBIO